Iran Gains Leverage After US-Israeli War: Can They Negotiate Harder?

Iran believes its negotiating position has been strengthened by the recent US-Israeli war, and the Islamic Republic will seek to extract concessions that Washington and Gulf nations may be unable to agree to, analysts caution.

The war, which erupted last month after escalating tensions between Iran and its regional rivals, has altered the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. Tehran now feels emboldened to drive a harder bargain in any future negotiations over its nuclear program and regional influence.

"Iran believes it has the upper hand," said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East North Africa Program at the Chatham House think tank. "They will try to extract more from the US and Gulf states than before the conflict."

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The war, which lasted three weeks and resulted in significant casualties on both sides, has strengthened Iran's position as a regional power. The Islamic Republic demonstrated its ability to inflict damage on Israel and withstand a sustained military assault, despite the vast technological and firepower advantage of the US and its allies.

"Iran proved it can still project power and force the US and Israel to the negotiating table," said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "This will embolden Tehran to drive a harder bargain."

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However, analysts warn that Iran may overplay its hand and make demands that Washington and its regional partners are unwilling to accept. This could derail any future negotiations and lead to a prolonged period of instability and conflict in the Middle East.

"Iran has gained leverage, but they need to be careful not to push too hard," said Vakil. "The US and Gulf states may be less willing to make concessions, and that could lead to a dangerous impasse."

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The Biden administration has signaled its willingness to re-engage with Iran and revive the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, the recent conflict has added new complexities to the negotiations, and the path forward remains uncertain.

"Both sides will need to show flexibility and compromise if they want to reach an agreement," said Geranmayeh. "But the stakes are high, and the margin for error is small."