Russia's Unwavering War Against Ukraine: Predictions for 2026

Russia will be able to sustain its invasion of Ukraine throughout 2026 even allowing for emerging manpower and economic pressures, while its missile and drone threat to Europe is growing, according to a leading military thinktank.

Bastian Giegerich, the director general of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said there was "little indication" that "Russia's ability to continue its war against Ukraine for a fifth year is diminished".

The assessment from the IISS challenges the widespread belief that Russia's military capabilities and economic resources are being rapidly depleted by the prolonged conflict. While acknowledging emerging challenges, Giegerich argued that Moscow has shown resilience in adapting its strategy and tactics to maintain the offensive.

"There are real pressures on Russia's manpower and economy, but they have found ways to work around them," Giegerich said. "They have mobilized more troops, they have found ways to sustain their industrial base and keep producing missiles and drones."

The IISS report suggests that Russia will be able to maintain a steady tempo of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian targets and critical infrastructure throughout 2026. This raises concerns about the growing threat to European security, as Moscow demonstrated its willingness to use such weapons against civilian populations.

"The missile and drone threat to Europe is increasing, and Russia has shown it is willing to use these weapons indiscriminately," Giegerich warned. "This is a concerning development that European leaders will need to address."

The IISS assessment underscores the complex and evolving nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has now entered its fifth year with no clear end in sight. As both sides continue to adapt and evolve their strategies, the potential for sustained, long-term confrontation remains a significant concern for regional and global security.