The Race to Replace Iran's Supreme Leader: What's at Stake?

The impending transition of power in Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has sparked intense speculation and debate. Contrary to popular belief, the selection of Iran's next supreme leader has nothing to do with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In fact, the process is heavily influenced by a select group of high-ranking clerics known as the Assembly of Experts.

The Assembly of Experts is a 88-member body responsible for electing and overseeing the supreme leader, Iran's most powerful political and religious figure. This group, composed of senior clerics, will be tasked with choosing Khamenei's successor, a decision that will have far-reaching implications for the country's future direction.

According to Mehdi Khalaji, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the selection of the next supreme leader is a carefully choreographed process that is largely independent of the IRGC's influence. Khalaji explains that the Assembly of Experts has historically been dominated by more moderate factions within the Iranian political establishment, who seek to maintain a delicate balance of power and prevent any one group from gaining too much control.

This means that the IRGC, while undoubtedly a powerful force in Iran, will not necessarily have a decisive say in who becomes the next supreme leader. Instead, the decision will be influenced by a range of factors, including the candidates' religious credentials, political allegiances, and ability to navigate the complex web of Iranian power structures.

Despite the ongoing protests and unrest in Iran, Khalaji believes that the selection of the next supreme leader will likely not be significantly impacted by the current social and political turmoil.