Understanding the Thucydides Trap: Xi's Warning to Trump

The Thucydides Trap represents one of the most significant theoretical frameworks for understanding international conflict in the modern era. When Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked this ancient historical concept in his discussions with President Donald Trump, he was drawing upon a sophisticated geopolitical warning that has captured the attention of policymakers, academics, and international relations experts worldwide. This metaphorical trap describes a pattern of inevitable conflict that emerges when a rising power challenges an established hegemon, creating structural tensions that can lead to devastating consequences if not carefully managed through diplomatic channels and strategic restraint.

The term itself originates from the work of Thucydides, the ancient Athenian general and historian who documented the Peloponnesian War in the fifth century BCE. In his seminal historical account, Thucydides described the conflict between Athens, the established dominant naval power, and Sparta, the rising land-based superpower of ancient Greece. The historian's analysis went beyond simple military narratives to explore the psychological and structural factors that made war between these two powers appear almost inevitable. Thucydides wrote that it was not merely competition over resources or territorial disputes that drove the conflict, but rather the fear that the rising power's growth inspired in the established power, combined with the rising power's ambitions and confidence in its growing capabilities.

In contemporary international relations discourse, Harvard Kennedy School professor Graham Allison popularized and systematized Thucydides's observations into what he termed the Thucydides Trap. Allison's extensive research examined historical cases where a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power, analyzing twelve instances over the past five centuries. His findings revealed a sobering pattern: in the majority of cases studied, when a rising power's capabilities grew to challenge those of an established hegemon, conflict—whether military, economic, or otherwise—became increasingly difficult to avoid. The structural pressures created by rapid power transitions, Allison argued, generate dynamics that push even rational actors toward confrontation.