Unlocking Peace: How Regional Rivalries Shape Sudan's Ongoing Conflict

As the devastating conflict in Sudan rages on, the underlying geopolitical tensions that fuel this crisis have become increasingly apparent. The fallout from the Iran-Gulf rift has the potential to reshape regional dynamics, opening up new avenues for diplomacy that could pave the way for a resolution to the Sudanese civil war.

Deepening Regional Rivalries

At the heart of the Sudanese conflict lies a web of regional rivalries, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt on one side, and Qatar and Turkey on the other. These Gulf powers have long jockeyed for influence in the Horn of Africa, with Sudan serving as a key battleground. The military takeover in Sudan in 2021 was widely seen as a victory for the Saudi-Emirati-Egyptian axis, which sought to counter the influence of their rivals in the region.

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The Iran Factor

However, the fallout from the ongoing conflict between Iran and its regional adversaries could potentially shift the dynamics in Sudan. As the Gulf powers focus their attention on the Iran issue, they may be more inclined to seek cooperation and compromise on other regional flashpoints, including Sudan. This could create an opportunity for diplomacy and conflict resolution, as the various parties involved in the Sudanese crisis may be more willing to engage in negotiations to find a peaceful solution.

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Obstacles to Peace

Yet the path to peace in Sudan remains fraught with challenges. The military junta in Khartoum has shown little willingness to engage in genuine power-sharing arrangements with the pro-democracy movement, and the various rebel groups operating in the country have often been at odds with one another. Moreover, the regional powers involved in the conflict have their own vested interests that may not align with the aspirations of the Sudanese people.

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The Way Forward

Nonetheless, the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough exists, and the international community must seize this opportunity. Sustained diplomatic pressure, coordinated regional efforts, and a commitment to inclusive negotiations could help chart a path towards a lasting peace in Sudan. As the country's people continue to endure the ravages of war, the stakes have never been higher.

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