Iran Emerges Stronger from Ceasefire with Trump Administration

The announcement of a two-week ceasefire has allowed Donald Trump to hail the reopening of the Hormuz strait as a victorious dawn of a new golden age, but it is Iran that now enters peace talks with the stronger hand.

The Tehran regime goes to the negotiations planned for Friday in Pakistan bloodied but still intact. It still holds a stockpile of highly enriched uranium (the original crux of the conflict with the US, Israel and allies), and it now claims at least part-control of the strait, having demonstrated its power to close the narrow waterway and hold the world to ransom.

This ceasefire, while granting Trump the instant gratification of reopening the strait, has left the US in a weaker position than before the war. Iran has shown its capacity to inflict pain on the Trump administration, both militarily and economically, and now enters the negotiations from a position of relative strength.

The original conflict was sparked by the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the reimposition of crippling sanctions on Iran. Tehran responded by gradually exceeding the deal's limits on its nuclear activities, leading to heightened tensions and the eventual outbreak of war.

Despite the ceasefire, the underlying issues remain unresolved. Iran is unlikely to simply return to the original nuclear deal, and the US will push for further concessions. The negotiations in Pakistan will be crucial in determining the path forward, with both sides seeking to secure the best possible outcome from a position of relative strength or weakness.

Ultimately, this ceasefire represents a temporary respite in a long-running conflict, with Iran now holding a stronger hand as the two sides prepare to resume negotiations. The outcome of these talks will have significant implications for the future of the Middle East and the global balance of power.