Trump's Instinctual Foreign Policy Falters in Iran Conflict

Trump's unconventional, instinct-driven foreign policy is being put to the test in the ongoing conflict with Iran, and early indications suggest his unorthodox approach is not producing the desired outcomes. One month into the crisis, the White House's reliance on impulse over careful planning has failed to yield any clear victories, leading foreign policy experts to warn that Trump's erratic decision-making could have serious and far-reaching implications.

Since the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in early January, the situation has continued to escalate, with Iran launching missile attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and the two sides engaged in an ongoing war of rhetoric and military posturing. However, the Trump administration has struggled to articulate a coherent strategy for addressing the crisis, leading many to question whether the president's gut-driven leadership is up to the challenge.

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"Trump's foreign policy is largely defined by his instincts rather than careful strategic planning," said Samantha Vinograd, a national security analyst at CNN and former national security official under President Obama. "And those instincts don't always align with the realities on the ground or the long-term interests of the United States."

A prime example of this is the administration's conflicting messages on the potential for further military escalation. While Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran with "disproportionate" retaliation if they attack American assets, he has also seemed reluctant to follow through, pulling back from the brink of war after Iran's missile strikes and declaring that the U.S. is "ready to embrace peace."

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This back-and-forth has left U.S. allies and adversaries alike uncertain about America's true intentions and commitment, undermining Washington's leverage and credibility on the global stage. "When the president makes threats, he needs to be prepared to back them up," said Vinograd. "Otherwise, it just makes the U.S. look weak."

Beyond the immediate crisis in Iran, Trump's broader foreign policy approach has been marked by a similar pattern of impulsive decision-making and resistance to expert advice. From his abrupt withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria to his ongoing trade war with China, the president has repeatedly favored his own personal instincts over the counsel of seasoned diplomats and national security professionals.

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The result has been a haphazard and unpredictable foreign policy that has alienated traditional allies, emboldened adversaries, and failed to advance American interests in any sustained or coherent way. And with tensions in the Middle East continuing to simmer, there are growing concerns that Trump's reliance on impulse over strategy could have devastating consequences.

"The president needs to understand that foreign policy isn't a reality TV show - it has real-world implications," said Vinograd. "If he continues to make decisions based on gut feeling rather than careful analysis, the American people and the world will pay the price."

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